The European Photovoltaic (PV) Industry Association (EPIA) will today present its recent publication Unlocking the Sunbelt potential of Photovoltaics at SNEC 5th (2011) International Solar PV Power Generation Conference & Exhibition (Shanghai) with the support of Chinese Renewable Energy Society (CRES) and Shanghai New Energy Industry Association ("SNEIA") and the management consultancy firm A.T. Kearney.
Countries of the world’s Sunbelt represent today about 75% of the world’s population and 40% of the global electricity demand. Furthermore, about 80% of the forecasted growth of the world electricity demand in the coming 20 years will originate from fast developing economies in that region. Characterized by an intense solar irradiation and often, high electricity generation costs, countries of the Sunbelt, where PV has a unique competitive potential, constitute an immense opportunity for PV to become mainstream by 2020 and to become a major electricity source by 2030.
hat is the main conclusion of the study presented today by the European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA), Unlocking the Sunbelt potential of photovoltaics. Carried out with the support of the Strategy Consulting Firm A.T. Kearney, this report looks in detail at 66 countries which compose the Sunbelt, representing 5 billion people and 95% of the area’s population. Despite the exceptional solar irradiation registered in these countries, at present they represent only 9% of the global installed PV capacity, which clearly shows that the high solar potential of Sunbelt countries remains largely untapped.
Apart from China, all the top 10 major PV markets in the world are currently located outside the Sunbelt region. EPIA’s report highlights the need to encourage the PV industry and Sunbelt governments alike to ensure the capacity to serve these soon-to-be very important markets and increase their commitment to significantly contribute to domestic economic value creation.
China, in particular, features in the top echelon of Sunbelt countries with a tremendous PV potential. Already commanding the worlds largest PV manufacturing capacity, and faced with steeply increasing electricity demand to power its economy, the report also highlights Chinas crucial role going forward for PV in the Sunbelt. "It is well known that China has earmarked the renewable energy sector as one of huge strategic importance in its 12th Five Year Plan. Within this, PV has distinct advantages over other alternative energies, and as such, will play a major role in replacing traditional energy sources this century" remarked Mr. Wu Dacheng, PV Professional Committee of CRES. " Mr. Shi Dinghuan, counselor of Chinas State Council and also President of CRES added that "governments at different levels need to further efforts to provide a more profitable operating environment for the solar energy sector".
The study, which looks for each country at criteria such as investment attractiveness, and the competitive potential of PV, identifies 3 typical deployment scenarios. It shows that the PV potential of the Sunbelt countries could range, depending on the scenario, from 60 to 250 GW by 2020, and from 260 to 1,100 GW in 2030, representing 27-58% of the forecasted global installed PV capacity by then. With system prices expected to decrease by up to 66% in 2030, PV electricity, already competitive today with some peak generation technologies in a number of countries, would see its generation costs dropping fast.
按EPIA董事会主席Murray Cameron的话说：我国现在已将平准化动力本钱控制在1.4-1.5元/千瓦时（即15.0 - 16.5 €cts/kWh）之间，已显示出比柴油动力峰值装机容量更大的竞赛力。除此之外，经过范式搬运，我国将在2020年将平准化动力本钱下降至RMB0.65元/千瓦时(即0.07 €cts/kWh)，并于2030年将此本钱下降至0.45元/千瓦时（即0.05 €cts/kW）。他进一步弥补道：到2020年，整个阳光地带光伏发电的竞赛力将高于一切其他峰荷发电，而到2030年，光伏发电本钱将低于一切其他惯例发电技能本钱。
China can already reach an LCOE between RMB1.4 and RMB1.5 /kWh (15.0 - 16.5 €cts/kWh) now, making it already more competitive than diesel powered peak power capacity. In addition, under the paradigm shift, China could reach RMB0.65/kWh (0.07 €cts/kWh) in 2020 and as low RMB0.45 /kWh (0.05 €cts/kW) by 2030, explained Murray Cameron, Board Director of EPIA. Across the Sunbelt, already in 2020, PV will be more competitive than all peak load electricity generation while in 2030 all conventional power generation technologies will be more expensive compared to PV, he further added.
In addition to providing a detailed economic analysis supporting the various deployment scenarios, the study also highlights a series of recommendations to enable the full realisation of the potential of PV in the Sunbelt. As commented by Bernhard Hartmann, Managing Director, Greater China of Strategic Management Consultancy firm, A.T. Kearney governments and policy makers in Asia are advised to seriously consider PV as an explicit part of their energy strategy and planning. They should also collaborate with development banks and private financial institutions to facilitate technology adoption of PV not only as a source for rural electrification, but as a mainstream source of energy.
编者按：咱们联合战略咨询机构科尔尼公司（A. T. Kearney）完成了本调研，其间还获得了乡村电气化联盟（ARE）以及西班牙光伏工业协会（ASIF）的大力支撑。
Editor’s note: This study was done in collaboration with the strategic management consultancy A.T. Kearney, and with the support of the Alliance for Rural Electrification (ARE) and the Asociación de la Industria Fotovoltaica (ASIF)
具有整个太阳能光伏职业中超越 240 名会员，EPIA 是国际上最大的光伏职业协会。 EPIA 的会员遍及业界价值链的每个环节：从硅、电池和模块出产到体系开发和光伏发电以及营销 与出售。EPIA 旨在经过整合光伏工业，推进供给共同而有价值的效劳。
With over 240 Members drawn from across the entire solar photovoltaic (PV) sector, the European Photovoltaic Industry Association is the world’s largest photovoltaic industry association. EPIA Members are present throughout the whole value-chain: from silicon, cells and module production to systems development and PV electricity generation as well as marketing and sales. EPIA’s mission is to deliver a distinct and valuable service driven from the strength of a single photovoltaic voice.